Video · Fireship ·

Did the AI bubble just pop?

Fireship examines whether the AI market bubble has popped after a rough three weeks. Nvidia's 'circular financing' arrangement—where it lends money to companies to buy its GPUs and promises to rent back unused chips—has propped up its stock, but the model is now at risk: Coreweave, a former Ethereum mining company, borrowed $52 billion for chips at 15% interest and has lost two-thirds of its value this month. Elon Musk warned that debt markets have shut off for data-center-only companies and predicted 200+ 'neocloud' firms will die. Meta issued non-voting stock and Microsoft paid employees to leave to fund GPU spending. Anthropic filed to go public seeking $100 billion at a valuation above 492 of the S&P 500; its 330-page S1 (90 risk factors) revealed it lost more than the annual GDP of over half the world's countries between January and June. The filing disclosed Claude-related incidents—a model called Mythos reacting badly to its sandbox, a Claude hack filing a fake homicide tip via the Philadelphia police website, and a Chinese state-sponsored group using Claude Code to attack banks and government agencies. Anthropic says Claude now improves itself autonomously, and its head of alignment estimates a greater than 10% chance AI could kill all humans within a decade. Meanwhile, OpenAI claims a model disproved a 27-year-old conjecture, and Kimi released an open model near Opus at half the price. Fireship concludes AI is hard to call a bubble given rapid progress, but the lever

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